John Murphy teaches you to make futures investment technology analysis

John Murphy is a master of technical analysis. He has published a number of technical analysis best-selling books. Its “Futures Market Technical Analysis” is regarded as a “Bible” in China.

The following is the top ten rules of Murphy’s technical transaction:

1. Research and judge the general trend

Study long -term graphics. From the time span to the monthly line and weekly map, the graphic analysis is performed. A longer time span can provide a larger visibility and better long -term perspective in a certain market. After there are countless long -term trends, we can analyze the daily chart and internal chart. Solid short -term market analysis is often deceived. Even if you only do short -term transactions, your success rate will be higher along the direction of the medium -term trend and the direction of long -term trends.

2. Discover the trend and follow the trend

Discover the trend and follow it. There are several scale in market trends -long -term, mid -term, and short -term. First determine which transaction you want to do, and then choose the appropriate graphics. Determine which trends are you in the direction of which trends you are. If the trend is rising, buy it when callback. If the trend is down, sell short while rebounding. If you are in the mid -term trend, use daily charts and weekly charts. If you are a trader in the daily daily, use the daily chart and internal chart. However, no matter what kind of situation belongs to, it should be used for a long -term figure to determine the trend, and then choose the opportunity to enter and exit with short -term graphics.

3. Find the high point and low point

Find the support level and resistance. The best position for buying is near the support position, which is often a early low. The best position of short selling is near the resistance level, and the resistance level is usually a early high point. After a high point of resistance is broken, it often provides support for future callbacks. In other words, the old “high point” becomes a new “low”. In the same way, when a supporting bit is broken, it often becomes a short -selling point that rebounds in the future -the old “low point” can become a new “high point”.

4. Know the range of retracement

Calculate the percentage of retracement trend. When the market is corrected up or down, it often retrases a large part of the original trend. You can estimate the retracement of existing trends through a simple percentage. The 50%retracement of previous trends is the most common. The smallest retracement is usually one -third of the previous trend. The maximum retracement is usually two -thirds. 38%and 62%of Fibonacci retracement lines are also worthy of attention. Therefore, during the recovery of the upward trend, the first buying point should be in the 33-38%retracement area.

5. Painting trend line

Draw the trend line. The trend line is one of the simplest and most effective graphics analysis tools. All you need is two points on a ruler and graphics. The upward trend line is drawn by two continuous low points. The decline trend line is connected to two continuous highs. The price is usually adjusted to the trend line, and then continues the upward trend. Breaking the trend line is often a signal of trend change. A effective trend line should be touched at least 3 times. The longer the trend line is effective, the more the number of tested, the higher the importance.

6. Follow the moving average

Follow the mobile average. The mobile average can provide objective buying and selling signals. They can tell you whether the existing trend is still in progress, and it can also help confirm the transformation of trends. However, the mobile average will not tell you a certain trend in advance. Combined with the use of two moving average is the most commonly used method to find trading signals. Some common futures product moving average combinations are 4 days and 9 days, 9 days, 18 days, 5 days, and 20 days. The emergence of signals occurs when the short -term moving average passes through the long -term moving average. The price station or falls below the 40 -day moving average can also provide very good transaction signals. Because the moving average is the trend tracking indicator, it is the most effective in the market with clear trends.

7. Preview turning point

Track oscillating indicator. Oscillation indicators help identify the market for super -purchase and oversold. The mobile average can confirm the changes in market trends, and the oscillation indicators often warn in advance that our market has risen or down, and an inflection point is about to occur. The most commonly used oscillation indicators are relatively weak index (RSI) and Stochastics. The value domain of the two indicators is 0-100. For RSI, the reading is over 70 to over buy, and the reading is less than 30. The super -buying and overtime value of stochastics is 80 and 20. Most traders use 14 -day (week) Stochastics, and RSI of 9 days (week) or 14 days (week). The departure of the oscillating indicator is often a warning signal for market steering. These tools are the most effective in the shocking city. The signal of the week chart can be used as a filter of the daily chart signal, and the daily chart signal can be used as a filter for the internal diagram signal.

8. Know the warning signal

Use MACD indicators. The index is smooth and the moving average (MACD) indicator combines the superb/oversold function of the mobile average crossing system and oscillation indicators. When the express line passes through the slow line and the two lines are lower than zero, the buying signal appears; when the express line passes through the slow line from the top and the two lines are higher than zero, the selling signal appears. The signal of the week chart is preferred in the signal of the daily chart. The pillar chart of MACD is a warning signal that reflects the difference between the two lines and can send a trend change earlier.

9. The trend is still oscillation


Use the ADX indicator. The average movement indicator (ADX) can help us determine that a market is in a clear trend or a shock market. It measures the degree of trend or the direction of the market. The rise in ADX means a strong trend, and the decline means that it belongs to the shock market and does not have a clear trend. When ADX rises, it should be used to use the moving average. When ADX decreases, it should be used with oscillation indicators. Through the direction of the ADX cable, traders can decide which transaction style and which indicators are most suitable for the current market environment.

10. Understand the confirmation signal

Including transaction volume and Open Interest. In the futures market, trading volume and position interest are important confirmation signals. The transaction volume is ahead of the price. We must determine that the volume amplification occurs in the direction of the dominant trend. In the upward trend, the volume should occur during the rising trading day. If you are interested in your position, you can confirm whether the new funds support the existing trend. The decline in the interest of holding a position is usually a warning signal with the trend close to the end. A stable price rise trend should be supported by rising transactions and rising interests.

“11.” technical analysis this technology will continue to improve with experience and learning. Be a student forever, there is no end to learning.

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